Why Georgia's Euro-Atlantic dream is now dead

The dream of Georgia finally being able to anchor itself to the West is now dead. The building of the Ochamchire naval base in Abkhazia marks the final blow to end the dream. Previously, Georgia had EU as well NATO aspirations – with a large majority of the younger population being strong supporters of these aspirations. The building of the base however, results in there being an unresolved security dilemma that fundamentally disqualifies Georgia as a viable future partner.

The development is not merely an act of territorial consolidation by Russia ; it is a calculated move that weaponizes Georgia's internal conflicts, severely complicates NATO security in the Black Sea, and blocks Georgia from joining Western alliances. The primary hurdle to Georgia’s NATO and EU ascension has always been the unresolved territorial conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia – which have been ongoing since the fall of the Soviet Union. The conflicts sparked up again after a series of skirmishes between South Ossetia and Georgia resulted in a larger armed conflict, with Russia involving itself, ultimately leading to the foreign troops being installed on Georgia’s de jure territory. The NATO charter, specifically Article 5 (collective defense), is inherently complicated by the possibility of admitting a nation that has contested territories or unwanted foreign troops on its soil.

For NATO to admit Georgia to the alliance would immediately assume responsibility for defending a nation with a Russian military base - which have the potential to host cruise missile capable ships -situated just 35km from the administrative borders. This directly goes against the alliance’s desire to avoid inheriting ongoing conflicts or being pulled into wars involving direct fire with Russia.

Moreover, the base solidifies Russia’s presence in Abkhazia by giving it a permanent, military asset on the Black Sea. This will most likely act as an alternative to naval bases in Sevastopol and Novorossiysk, as they are within active range of Ukrainian missile systems. This build-up of military infrastructure will diminish any prospects of Georgia restoring its international borders, an outcome which the EU and NATO hope for but are not willing to fight for. The base ensures that Russia maintains an indefinite chokehold on Georgia's maritime security and sovereignty.

The establishment of the Ochamchire base is a direct result of successful Ukrainian attacks on Russian ships in Crimea and Novorossiysk, forcing Moscow to seek a safer, more distant harbor. This relocation has dire consequences on Western engagement within Georgia.

Warships - potentially containing long-distance missiles capable of hitting Ukrainian cities - will be relocated to Ochamchire, making it a legitimate target for Ukrainian attacks. Since September 2023, Ukraine has been putting pressure on the Russian Navy’s presence in the Western Black Sea, particularly through the bombing of Crimean naval bases. If Ukraine were to continue attacks on the Black Sea fleet via striking Ochamchire, it would effectively drag the war out on internationally recognised Georgian territory. This would shatter the Georgian government’s attempt to maintain “neutrality”, and would directly drag them into the war, opening a new theatre in the South Caucasus.

The presence of a key Russian base on a candidate country’s occupied territory complicates NATO’s Black Sea strategy, which aims to contain Russian expansion. This move by Russia is a direct attempt to assert its dominance over the Eastern Black Sea, directly challenging the geopolitical interests of NATO members Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria.

Georgia’s primary economic value to the West is its role as a west Asian hub in the Middle Corridor (an East-West trade route spanning from China through Central Asia and the Caucasus to Europe). The Ochamchire base is only 30km north of the planned Anaklia deep-sea port, a project that’s development has recently been awarded to a Chinese state-owned consortium. Western financial institutions and shipping companies are unlikely to invest significant capital into a commercial hub that sits directly under the direct military shadow of a hostile Russian naval base.

Russia gains the power to disrupt, intimidate, or complicate commercial shipping in the area at any time. This vulnerability undermines the fundamental promise of the Middle Corridor: reliability and security. By introducing a military flashpoint adjacent to a global trade hub, Russia effectively renders the Georgian route less attractive, maintaining its influence over Eurasian trade flows and weakening Georgia’s economic independence.

The Ochamchire base is essentialy the physical manifestation of Russia's ability to veto Georgia's Euro-Atlantic future. It leverages a military security risk that neither the EU nor NATO can realistically absorb without fundamentally compromising their own security principles: territorial integrity, stability, democratic and strategic alignment.

By successfully installing this base, Moscow has achieved a decisive strategic victory. It has shown that it can use its military presence on occupied Georgian land as a tool of political coercion, permanently obstructing Georgia's stated foreign policy goal. For Tbilisi, the construction of this military wedge leaves the path to the West heavily barricaded. Moreover, this further reinforced with the current domestic political crisis, with the ruling Georgian Dream party (currently being accused of election fraud) suspending preparations for EU accession and appeasing Russia to avoid confrontation. The price of admission to NATO and the EU is a secure, stable, and sovereign state, but Russia has just ensured Georgia is none of the above. The curtain is falling on Georgia's Euro-Atlantic dream.