Weekly Update (Oct 20th to 26th, 2025)

Middle East: Gaza ceasefire talks stall amid humanitarian pressure

Negotiations mediated by Qatar and Egypt to extend the Gaza ceasefire were stalled this week, as disagreements persisted over hostage releases and aid access. Israeli officials accused Hamas of delaying tactics, while humanitarian agencies warned that fuel shortages and border restrictions risked a renewed collapse in essential services. The UN said aid flows had improved slightly but remained well below pre-war needs, reinforcing fears that the pause could break down under political pressure on both sides.

Indo-Pacific: Philippines and China clash over South China Sea patrols

Tensions rose after the Philippines accused China’s coast guard of using water cannons against a resupply mission near Second Thomas Shoal. China insisted that its actions were lawful and defensive, rejecting the claim. The incident instigated renewed US statements reaffirming the Mutual Defence Treaty with Manila, underscoring how maritime confrontations risk drawing in external powers and escalating regional insecurity.

Europe: Germany struggles to pass revised budget

In Berlin, Chancellor Olaf Scholz faced growing resistance within his coalition as lawmakers debated a revised federal budget following a constitutional court ruling on debt rules. Delays have unsettled markets and raised concerns about Germany’s capacity to finance energy transition and defence spending simultaneously, with knock-on effects for EU-wide fiscal coordination.