Weekly update (6th to 12th October)

Israel-Lebanon: Low-intensity clashes despite truce

Cross border fire continued through the week. Daily incident trackers recorded several Hezbollah operatives killed and injuries were recorded on both sides. The UNIFIL has issued multiple statements urging restraint and documented drone dropped grenades near peacekeeper positions on 12 Oct in Kafer Kela. This has reinforced concerns about escalation along the Blue Line. 

Ukraine: Long range drones hit infastructure deep in Russia

Ukraine has intensified its use of long range drones to strike on energy and logistics facilities. This includes the Feodosia oil terminal on the 6th October and there were reported attacks reaching as far as western Siberia (Tyumen) on 7 Oct, while ISW assessed continued Ukrainian targeting of Russian refineries and defense industry that week. Russian authorities also reported intercepts over Bryansk and Kursk.

Nobel Peace Prize 2025

On 10 Oct, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the Peace Prize to María Corina Machado “for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela.” Machado is a former member of Venezuela’s National Assembly and long-time critic of President Nicolás Maduro. She has been repeatedly barred from running for office and accused of treason by the government. Despite this, she has remained a prominent voice of the Venezuelan opposition, advocating for free elections, the rule of law, and an end to political repression.